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Thread: GDP Won't Have Lasting Impact On Dollar

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    Default GDP Won't Have Lasting Impact On Dollar

    Thursday's larger-than-expected downward revisions to first quarter GDP data "are unlikely to have any sustained impact on the dollar," Alan Ruskin, head of international strategy at RBS Greenwich Capital noted as inventories were a key driver of the downward revision, but are expected to rebound in the next few quarters. As a result, the focus of the currency market "will remain on improved risk appetite," Ruskin noted, "with the only immediate restraint to a full (dollar) recovery being some caution before the key U.S. data (Friday.)" (ILD)
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    Alan Ruskin, head of international strategy at RBS Greenwich Capital, noted that the limited reaction to the data "is in part because inventories have been the key driver behind the downward revisions and the weakness is, if anything, seen as likely to show up in a sharper rebound in the next couple of quarters."

    The dollar entered the New York session already a bit weaker against the euro after mostly positive data out of Europe.

    Initially, the euro received a brief setback overnight by German unemployment data that showed a rise of 3,000 in May after a drop of 8,000 the month before. The unemployment rate in Germany, the euro zone's largest economy, remained the same, at 9.2% in May.

    But more than offsetting the weaker-than-expected German data was a report that indicated a surge in consumer confidence in the euro zone in May.

    According to the European Commission's monthly survey of economic sentiment in the euro zone published Thursday, the h1 measure of consumer confidence rose to -1 in May from -4 in April, well above expectations.

    Against the yen, the dollar showed little movement overnight despite some weak data in Japan. Housing starts showed another month of decline in April, although the fall wasn't as sharp as economists had expected.

    Also, Japanese workers' wages dropped for the fifth straight month in April, a government report said, revealing that a tighter job market in Japan hasn't yet translated into fatter paychecks for workers.

    The dollar's failure to register solid gains from the weak overnight data suggests some technical factors might be at work, traders said.

    They noted that the dollar has hovered near the Y122.0 level for more than a week without being able to break above it. If the dollar can eventually pierce this key resistance level, it might shoot even higher.
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