Monthly Outlook for GBP/JPY
Comment: Very difficult as we hover around important very long term resistance at 240.00/241.60. Last weeks close above 240.00, while the highest since September 1992, was not mirrored in other major currencies. Minor ones yes, but not the Euro or the Swiss franc. Therefore the jury is still out as to whether we have managed an important break higher and so we shall continue to allow for another corrective move lower. A drop to 232.00 is probably the minimum one can expect, and a sustained move below 225.00 looking unlikely. Note that the longer we hold above 234.00 the smaller the chance of a correction lower. Later this year we do expect a sustained move up to 260.00.
A weekly close below 220.00 or above 241.60 forces us to review.
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